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The "Trump Effect" on Market Indicators

We are not going to discuss politics or make predictions about what President-Elect Trump will or won't do, or who he may or may not name to his administration. We're perfectly happy to leave those discussions to others, who can speculate as to how Trump will affect the parties, the United States and the world, and what this "historic" election means for the nation.

In my experience, though, we Americans are generally concerned with our own well being and that of our communities, both social and economic. Remember enlightened self-interest?

To that end, my clients are much more concerned with how the new administration will handle economic issues. James Carville was right when he exhorted candidate Bill Clinton to remember that it's "the economy, stupid." It's ALWAYS the economy. We are all wondering what happens to the economy under a President Trump. Of course, all we have right now is vague policy positions, but we can point to what has happened to the markets since the election. Looking ahead, many are predicting a likely economic expansion, and rising rates and inflation from a Trump presidency. We can only wait and see.

Here's what the data reveal: Major indicators - Interest rates, the dollar index and the S&P 500 - have all soared since November 8. Is this a vote of confidence? Pent-up demand? Will it continue? Is it time to think about refinancing debt?

The Trump Effect - Market Performance Since Nov 8

In our world of financing real estate and operating companies, the direction is clear: Lock in debt as low and as long as possible right now, before rates rise in earnest. We are advising owners to take a hard look at their portfolios with a critical eye towards current debt levels, leverage, rates and prepayment penalties.

Fortunately, capital remains readily available for stabilized, cash-flowing assets at near-historic low rates and with generous terms. We are helping clients with the assessment and refinancing of multifamily, NNN-lease, industrial, office and other assets.

If you would like to assess your options in today's market, please give me a call at (215) 519-1010 or drop me an email.

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